Dutching Calculator

What is dutching?

Dutching means backing more than one selection in the same event, with the stakes sized so that you get the same return whichever of them wins. The name comes from Dutch Schultz, the New York gangster whose accountant worked out how to spread money across horses so the payout was identical regardless of the result.

The maths is simple enough to do by hand. Stake in proportion to each selection’s implied probability — that is, to 1 divided by its decimal price — and every winning outcome returns the same amount. The calculator above does it for you, which matters once you are past two selections and the numbers stop being round.

When dutching makes money

Dutching on its own, at a single bookmaker, is a guaranteed loss because that bookmaker’s prices already include a margin. It turns profitable in three situations: when you take the best price on each selection from a different bookmaker and the combined implied probability drops under 100%; when one of the selections is on a price boost; or when you are using free bets or bonus funds on one leg, in which case the stake on that leg costs you nothing.

Dutching versus laying

A lay bet on the exchange is the cleanest way to cover an outcome, but exchange liquidity on racing or niche markets can be thin. Dutching lets you cover the market entirely with back bets at bookmakers, which is why it is popular for horse racing offers, extra-place promotions and 2-up style insurance. Enter each selection’s best available price, set your total stake, and the calculator does the split.

How the stakes are worked out

Each selection’s stake is the total stake multiplied by its implied probability, divided by the sum of all the implied probabilities. Rounding to the nearest pound makes the bets look natural to a bookmaker; the table shows the real profit on each outcome after rounding.

Worked example: dutching a whole market

A football match priced at 2.50 the home win, 3.40 the draw, 3.20 the away win, with £100 to spread across all three.

Outcome	Odds	Stake	Return if it wins
Home	2.50	£39.74	£99.34
Draw	3.40	£29.22	£99.34
Away	3.20	£31.04	£99.34

Identical return whatever happens — and it is £99.34 on a £100 outlay. You have guaranteed yourself a 66p loss.

That is not a flaw in the method, it is the whole point of the demonstration. The three implied probabilities add up to 100.66%, and that 0.66% is the bookmaker’s margin. Dutching an entire market at one bookmaker always loses you the margin, precisely and predictably. Anyone who tells you dutching is free money is describing a market priced under 100%, which is arbitrage and normally needs two different bookmakers.

Worked example: dutching part of a market

The version people actually use. Same match, but you back only the draw and the away win with your £100, leaving the home win uncovered.

Outcome	Odds	Stake	Result
Draw	3.40	£48.48	Returns £164.85
Away	3.20	£51.52	Returns £164.85
Home	—	—	You lose £100

Now it is +£64.85 or −£100. This is a genuine bet, not a locked position. The two selections you covered carry a combined implied probability of 60.7%, so the home side has to fail to win more than 60.7% of the time for this to break even in the long run.

Illustrative prices, not live odds. Put your own numbers into the calculator above.

Where dutching earns its place in matched betting

• When the exchange is too thin to lay. On an obscure market you may not find enough money to lay properly. Backing every other outcome at a bookmaker achieves the same coverage without the exchange.
• When liability is the problem. Dutching ties up only the stakes. A lay at long odds ties up a much larger liability, and if your exchange balance is the constraint, that difference decides what you can do today.
• On offers that require a specific market. Some promotions only trigger on a bet the exchange does not price at all.
• It costs more than laying, usually. You pay the bookmaker’s margin on every selection instead of the exchange’s commission on one. Reach for it when laying is not available, not as a default.

Frequently asked questions

Is dutching risk-free?

No. It removes the question of which selection wins, not the question of whether any of them do. Cover every outcome and you lock in a small loss equal to the margin; cover some of them and you have a real bet with a real downside.

Dutching or laying — which should I use?

Lay, when you can. One exchange bet, one commission charge, and the price is usually closer to the bookmaker’s than the combined margin across several selections. Dutch when the exchange has no liquidity, when the liability is more than your balance can hold, or when the market is not on the exchange at all.

How many selections can I dutch?

As many as the market has, though the more you add the more margin you pay. In a big-field horse race, covering enough runners to feel safe usually costs more than the outcome is worth.

Does dutching get accounts restricted?

It can. Several bets on one event, staked to odd amounts, settled within seconds of each other is a recognisable pattern. It is less conspicuous than arbing but more so than a single qualifying bet — see how to avoid getting gubbed.

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